America Has Spoken: Where Does That Leave Ag?

The ballots have been cast, the polls have closed and now it is time to see how the cattle industry will fare following the mid-term elections.  With all but a few races firmly decided, the Democrats have taken control of the U.S. House of Representatives for the first time in 12 years while, at press time, the Republicans appear to be barely holding on to a narrow margin of control in the Senate.

The shift in voter sentiment can be attributed to many things, but we must now look forward to see how this shift will affect the legislative strategies of NCBA members.

Congress will return Nov. 13 to try and finish the remaining business of the 109th Congress and begin organizing itself for the 110th, which will convene in January.  While the final decisions haven’t been made, it looks like Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) will be the next Speaker of the House.

With her will likely come Collin Peterson of Minnesota as chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, Nick Rahall of West Virginia as chairman of the Resources Committee, and John Dingell of Michigan as chairman of the Energy and Commerce Committee.

Ms. Pelosi, a liberal Democrat who represents the urban heart of San Francisco, has no production agriculture in her district.  She is strongly supported by animal activist groups and environmentalists.  As such, we can expect that agriculture, especially the cattle business, will not be a top priority for her.

She will more than likely defer to Rep. Peterson on agricultural issues and take his advice on how to proceed.   Peterson is a “Blue Dog” Democrat.  Blue Dogs are a group of moderate-to-conservative Democrats that work together to influence their party’s political agenda.  Most of the Blue Dogs represent districts with rural areas, and many sit on the Agriculture Committee.

In addition to being a Blue Dog, Peterson is a long-standing member of the Ag Committee and is experienced in working to address issues of concern in rural areas.  He has been an ally to NCBA and to cattlemen in the past helping to defeat attacks by animal activist groups and passing the reauthorization of Mandatory Price Reporting.

But Peterson has said that he will make implementing mandatory country of origin labeling a priority immediately upon taking the chairmanship.  He also said he will work to support a rewrite of the Farm Bill during the next Congress, but cattle producers can expect that bill to have a heavier slant towards ideas such as bans on packer ownership and forward contracting.

Many of the seats gained by the Democrats will be held by Blue Dogs, and we can expect them to have an even greater presence in their party.  The Democrats view this takeover as their opportunity to set the stage for the 2008 elections.  To be successful and help pave the way for a Democratic presidential win, they know that they must appeal more to the moderate and conservative Democrats who have most recently been voting for Republicans due to their party’s perceived lack of message and focus.  But it is doubtful that Democrats will completely abandon their base which includes citizens in big cities who have a more liberal view of issues such as welfare, health care, immigration, and believe that tax dollars should be generated and spent on these programs.

Along with the loss of key industry supporters in Congress, we will see a loss of priority focused on top NCBA issues such as full and permanent repeal of the Death Tax and exempting manure from EPA’s Superfund laws.  These are issues that Democrats have actively opposed, and they will use their control of the House to keep them from coming up.  We will, however, see priority given to the animal activist and environmentalist agendas.  Many of these activist groups gave money to the Democratic party and will use that leverage to continue their push for anti-meat and anti-agriculture legislation.

In the Senate, the Republicans have had a small margin of control for several years.  A small margin of control will make the Senate a prime spot for gridlock.  With a Democrat-controlled House, Senate Republicans will not hesitate to derail any attempt by Democrats to pass legislation deemed critical in putting a Democrat in the White House in 2008.  If the Democrats win power in the Senate (at press time, this is still too close to call), it is expected that Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) will return as chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee, but Ranking Member Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) will still have a lot of power, especially as the 2007 Farm Bill develops.

The results of this election will have a huge impact on the cattle industry for years to come.  It is imperative that the current Congress do what it can to pass NCBA priorities before it leaves power (see “It’s Crunch Time for Superfund Bills” on page 3).  That is because the new Congress will not share the same concerns.

As the debate surrounding the 2007 Farm Bill begins, it is even more critical that cattlemen contact their members of Congress and let them know where they stand.  NCBA will continue to stand watch here in Washington, D.C., and fight to protect the industry.