Nation’s Hay Crop Looks Like a Record

In the Aug. 1 Crop Production report USDA-National Agricultural Statistics Service projected a record large U.S. hay crop for 2004.  Nationally, the U.S. crop may be record large, but likely both harvested acreage and yield will be reduced by weather.  Also, compared to a year ago, some regions will cut back harvest of low- nutritional value hay (non irrigated, CRP, etc.).

As of Aug. 1, USDA estimated that U.S. production of alfalfa hay and mixtures in 2004 at 77.3 million tons, up nearly 1 million tons from 2003.  The final number could easily be lower by 300,000 tons nationwide. 

More importantly, on a national basis, USDA estimated 2004 “other hay” production would be 84.5 million tons, shattering all prior annual levels.  The previous record reported by USDA was for 2003 at 80.8 million tons.  Further, 2003 was the first time on record that USDA estimated production at over 80 million tons.  Given weather conditions during August and other factors, the U.S. “other hay” crop could easily be 2 million tons smaller than USDA’s Aug. 1 estimate.  Still, that would be a record large national hay crop.

Many regions may struggle to find high quality hay.  Much of the year-to-year increase in total U.S. hay production may be low quality.  Price differences between hay that is nutritionally low versus high quality could be much larger than normal in many regions.  Hay buyers will likely benefit from forage testing and shopping around for hay. 

For the 2004-05 hay crop-marketing year, the national average alfalfa hay price this year could average in the high $80’s to low $90’s per ton.  That would be a year-to-year decline of $5 to $9 per ton.  “Other hay” prices in most regions of the U.S. may be mostly in the $60’s in 2004-05, a year-to-year decline of $10 to $16 per ton and at the lowest price levels in about five years. 

Source:  Livestock Marketing Information Center