The November 5 Election is a Jump Ball

You’ve heard it.  The 2002 elections are too close to call.  The Republicans and Democrats are fighting to hang on to slim majorities in one house and hopefully gain the upper hand in the other.  Senate Democrats are working to keep their one-seat majority as Republicans nip at their heels in Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey and South Dakota.

             House Republicans hold a slim six-seat edge.  As there are fewer than two dozen truly competitive seats,  some districts could see over $5 million spent to pick up a single House seat.

Senate Election Update

Thirty-four seats are up in the U.S. Senate. Of those, no more than seven or eight are considered competitive. 

New Jersey.  This race broke wide open with the last-minute withdrawal of incumbent Democratic Sen. Robert Torricelli. Polling information had indicated a dramatic shift in favor of Republican challenger Doug Forrester, causing Torricelli to withdraw.  Former Sen. Frank Lautenberg has filled the Democratic vacancy. With his strong record of public service and sizable personal wealth, he is as well-positioned as anyone could be to mount a campaign in four weeks. 

          Minnesota.  After breaking his pledge to remain in office for no more than two terms, liberal Sen. Paul Wellstone appears to be struggling against former St. Paul Mayor Norm Coleman. Polls taken in late July showed Wellstone running 4 percentage points behind Coleman.  Wellstone is a well-known friend to the Sierra Club and other liberal environmental groups. Coleman has been a consistent advocate of sound science and common-sense conservation efforts.  If elected, he would be a great friend to the cattle industry.

Missouri.  An independent poll conducted in mid-August showed Sen. Jean Carnahan running behind Republican challenger Jim Talent by 6 percentage points.  She was appointed to fulfill the term of her husband, Mel Carnahan, who was elected despite his death in a plane crash only weeks before the 2000 election.  She is seeking elected office for the first time.  Carnahan has opposed NCBA on numerous issues, including repeal of the Estate Tax.  She is endorsed by the the Sierra Club.

South Dakota.  Freshman Sen. Tim Johnson of South Dakota has been trailing Republican Rep. John Thune for months by 3 to 5 percentage points, although neither has cracked 50 percent. Johnson barely won his seat in 1996 with 51 percent;  Thune won his statewide, at-large House seat with 75 percent of the vote.  

          Johnson voted against easing Endangered Species regulations for ranchers in the Klamath Basin in California and against a bill that would have greatly eased the regulatory burden on farmers.  Johnson also voted against permanent repeal of the Estate Tax, which had already been passed in South Dakota.

          NCBA-PAC will continue to direct its resources where we can have the biggest impact.  Our involvement in these races is based on the input, insight and advice of our local state affiliates coupled with the political analysis of the public policy team in Washington, D.C. 

No matter where you live, get to the polls to vote, especially if you live in one of these very competitive districts or states.  Every member of Congress eventually votes on an issue that impacts our industry, and for that reason, every race is important.  And for that reason, every vote is important.  Make yours count.

House Election Race Update

All 435 seats are up for election.  Political handicapper Stu Rothenberg’s most recent analysis projects:

Republicans - 216 seats 

Democrats - 201 

Up for grabs - 18 

10 now held by the GOP

3 now held by Democrats

5 are toss-ups, including: 

AZ 1.  Conservative Republican Rick Renzi faces Democrat George Cordova in this evenly divided district.

CO 7.   An open, newly configured district puts former State Republican Party Chairman Bob Beauprez against State Sen. Mike Feeley (D).  Voter registration is evenly split.

NM 2.  Republican State Sen. Steve Pearce faces Democratic State Sen. John Arthur Smith.  Recent polling information gives Pearce a slight lead.  He is endorsed by Farm Bureau, which may help move some agriculture groups into his camp.

PA 17.  Redistricting in Pennsylvania has pitted Republican George Gekas against Democrat Tim Holden.  Gekas represents about 60 percent of the new district.  Still, more than a few polls have given Holden an edge.