News Releases

Date: 7/17/2010

Title: Feed Outlook Report Predicts Lower Grain Production

WASHINGTON - Last week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its Feed Outlook report and U.S. feed grain production in 2010 is expected to be down from last month reflecting lower planted acreage as forecast in the June 30 Acreage report. Feed grain production is projected up from 2009 as planted and harvested area are up from last year for corn, more than offsetting year-to-year reductions for sorghum, barley, and oats. Adjustments are made in 2009-10 use this month to reflect June 1 stocks. The resulting changes lower 2009-10 ending stocks and 2010-11 supplies. Forecast 2010-11 prices for all four feed grains are raised this month, as feed grain ending stocks are projected lower. U.S. corn exports for 2010/11 are decreased based on stronger U.S. prices. Foreign coarse grain ending stocks for 2010/11 are down slightly more than U.S. stocks, mostly due to reduced barley production prospects. During 2010/11, world coarse grain stocks are projected to decline 5 percent.

The projection for 2010-11 corn production was decreased 1 percent from last month as a result of decreased plantings. Producers decreased plantings 926,000 acres from their March intentions to 87.9 million acres. Plantings are up from 86.5 million in 2009. Forecast harvested area is decreased 754,000 acres month to 81.0 million acres. The largest year-to-year increases in planted area were recorded in Illinois and Kansas, both up 600,000 acres from last year. Other notable increases were shown in Indiana, up 400,000 acres; Missouri, up 300,000 acres; and Ohio, up 250,000 acres. The largest declines occurred in Iowa, down 400,000, and Nebraska and South Dakota, both down 350,000 acres from last year. The national average yield projection remains unchanged from last month at 163.5 bushels per acre, down from 164.7 bushels per acre in 2009-10. As of July 4, 71 percent of the corn crop was rated in good to excellent condition, the same as this time last year.

Projected corn use for 2010-11 is down 50 million bushels this month to 13.36 billion. Feed and residual use and food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use remain unchanged at 5.35 billion and 6.06 billion bushels, respectively. Expected corn use for ethanol also remains unchanged this month at 4.7 billion bushels. Exports for 2010-11 were decreased by 50 million bushels to 1.95 billion bushels, as tighter domestic supplies, strong demand from ethanol production, and rising prices reduce the export competitiveness of U.S. corn. As a result, 2010-11 ending stocks were projected 200 million bushels lower at 1.373 billion.

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