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Date: 7/11/2010

Title: USDA Releases Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

DENVER - According to the report, projected U.S. feed grain supplies for 2010-11 were lowered with reduced carryin and lower projected production. Beginning stocks for corn are projected 125 million bushels lower reflecting higher use in 2009-10. With the forecasted harvested area down, corn production is lowered 125 million bushels, leaving supplies down 250 million bushels and 60 million below the 2009-10 record. Exports for 2010-11 are projected 50 million bushels lower as tighter domestic supplies, strong demand from ethanol production, and rising prices reduce the export competitiveness of U.S. corn. Ending stocks for 2010-11 are projected down 200 million bushels at 1,373 million, 105 million below the 2009-10 projection. The season-average farm price for corn is projected 15 cents higher on both ends of the range to $3.45 to $4.05 per bushel.

U.S. corn use for 2009-10 is projected to be 125 million bushels higher as increased feed and residual use more than offsets a reduction for ethanol. Feed and residual use is projected 175 million bushels higher as June 1 stocks indicated higher-than-expected disappearance during the March-May quarter. Corn use for ethanol is lowered 50 million bushels reflecting the latest ethanol production data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Although daily ethanol disappearance set another record in April, daily production slipped below March’s record pace. EIA’s new weekly ethanol production data series (first reported for the week ending June 4) suggests June production, while up from April, will not reach the March pace.

Total U.S. meat production forecasts for 2010 and 2011 were adjusted slightly from the previous month. Cow slaughter remains relatively high boosting beef production in 2010. Higher forecast mid-year cattle placements are also expected to boost steer and heifer slaughter later in the year and into early 2011. Pork production is forecast higher for 2010 based on increased slaughter and heavier dressed weights; mainly during the second quarter. The June 1 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated that producers intend to have fewer sows farrow in the second half of 2010. Although largely offset by gains in pigs per litter, year-over growth in sows farrowing in 2011 is slower than previously forecast, and the 2011 pork production forecast is reduced slightly. Broiler production is forecast higher for 2010 and 2011. Hatchery data point toward continued growth in bird numbers and weights have been moving up. Turkey and egg production forecasts are unchanged from last month.

Cattle and hog price forecasts for 2010 are reduced from last month as demand remains relatively weak in the face of higher production.

For the complete report, visit usda.mannlib.cornell.edu.



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