El Nino Update
It is weak and has been very slow to start, however, it does appear that an El Nino or a Modoki El Nino will impact the weather across the United States this winter and into early spring before fading by late spring and early summer.
Over the past two weeks sea surface temperatures have risen west of South America and westward along and near the equator. In the graphic below notice the east to west streak of orange near the equator west of South America to the northeast of Australia. This is an El Nino signal (albeit a weak one). There are also warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska and the north Pacific. Those warmer water in the north Pacific is a cold signal for the lower 48 states for the remainder of fall and possibly into early winter. Just ask folks in the Rockies and Northern Plains who experienced severe cold and snow over the past few days.
Colder than normal temperatures will be overspreading a large portion of the central and eastern U.S. this week with some first snows for some.
For those of you in the Corn Belt and Midwest who want some drier conditions so you can resume harvest operations we have good news. The spell of colder temperatures will also bring in a drier airmass. While some showers are expected, amounts of precipitation will be below normal for the next ten days.
Below is the 10 day precipitation graphic, notice all the brown areas (drier than normal) in the Midwest and Corn Belt. Hopefully some of those muddy fields will dry out for you! The heavier rains will be more to the south and southwest.