El Nino Update
The graphic below highlights the most recent sea surface temperature profile across the globe. Of interest in this graphic is the El Nino in the subtropical Pacific between South America and Australia. The area of orange and light red coloring highlights the warmer than normal water temperatures in that region of the globe. This is a classic El Nino temperature pattern. Also note the warmer waters off the Baja of California.
Of interest are areas of colder waters, as these cold pools will have an impact on the winter season in other parts of the globe. Note the colder waters (blue area) between Greenland and Europe. This cold pool will likely create stormy weather for northern and western Europe this winter season and increased Arctic ice.
With the steady state of warm water temperature in recent weeks showing no change, the confidence remains high that the warmer El Nino waters will bring enhanced rainfall to central and southern California as well as enhanced snowfall in the central and southern Sierras this winter season.
The graphic below shows a prediction of El Nino through the rest of 2015 and into the first half of 2016. All predictions show El Nino peaking in November and December and then declining into the early parts of 2016 and becoming neutral by late spring of 2016.
There is a high probability that El Nino may go into a La Nina (colder) pattern in 2016 and 2017, which would also have an impact on weather patterns and climate in the next couple of years.
With the El Nino pattern remaining steady and no major changes seen in its evolution this winter the forecasts for a more wet weather pattern for California, the Desert Southwest and the southern tier of the U.S. remain in place.
The forecasts for a more mild winter season across the northern states and Great Lakes remain valid as well.