A Peak into Summer
It may be hard to be thinking about summer with the recent snowy and cold weather in the west last week and the snow and cold in the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast this week. However, patterns are beginning to emerge that give us some hints on what the summer of 2016 might bring us.
In the short term, expect some very chilly and winter like weather over the central and northeastern areas of the United States as winter is not giving up easily. Weather patterns in April and May are likely going to be cool and wet in the west with some moderation in temperatures and more typical springtime weather in the central and east.
For the upcoming summer season, a large portion of the U.S. can expect some pretty warm temperatures. Unlike the last couple of summers were temperatures averaged close to normal in many areas, this summer is likely going to be warmer than normal.
Both analog forecasts (looking a similar patterns in previous seasons) and long range computer modeling area in agreement that a large portion of the nation may experience warmer than normal temperatures. The graphic below shows what happened in the years of 1988, 1998, 2007 and 2010. All of those summer seasons were preceded by El Nino weather patterns like we have seen this year. Areas in yellow and light orange represent above normal temperatures.
Long term computer modeling agrees. The graphic below is from the CFS long range model from NOAA. The orange and light red areas show above normal temperatures that are expected in June, July and August. Only the portions of the Central and Southern Rockies and Southern Plains are showing near or below normal summer temperatures.